In the world of economics, a term that is often used is leading indicator. A leading indicator is some data point or a set of data that show or predict where things might be heading. As an example, even if the economy is strong in a given moment, if data shows that business or consumer confidence is low, that may be a leading indicator that things are likely to weaken in the near future.
In politics, there are also indicators of things that may come as well. While political parties or political leaders can be doing well in the polls one day, there can be underlying indicators of trouble on the horizon. A recent poll of Manitobans by the Angus Reid polling company is one example. What was most interesting about the poll wasn’t the usual voting intention numbers, but rather the opinions that Manitobans expressed on how they believed the current NDP government is doing on managing the most important issues.
Far and away, in Manitoba and in other parts of Canada, two of the most important issues to voters are healthcare and the cost of living. Daily we hear stories of people who are waiting excruciatingly long hours in Emergency Rooms or for diagnostic tests. Tragically, some have died waiting to be seen in an ER or for a test. Just as pressing is the concern that many Manitobans and Canadians have about the ability to afford even the basics in life. The high cost of food, fuel and many other things has made it hard not just to get ahead, but even to keep up.
Why the Angus Reid poll was interesting is because it specifically asked Manitobans how it felt the current NDP government was doing managing these and other issues. Barely a quarter of those Manitobans surveyed felt that the NDP government is doing a good job on either the healthcare or the economic files. And while that may not come as a surprise to many Manitobans, to listen to Premier Wab Kinew, it would come as a shock to him. Routinely in the Manitoba Legislature he says, on the record, that things are going great in healthcare and the economy. He even goes so far as to say that Ministers responsible for these files are the best in Canada.
Of course, every Legislature has its degree of rhetoric, but at a time when so many Manitobans are upset about the state of healthcare and the economy, this seems like a bridge much too far for the Premier to try to build. And the poll seems to clearly show that the majority of Manitobans are simply not buying it. They will not be convinced by any amount of NDP rhetoric that the prices they are seeing with their own eyes at the grocery store are not real. Nor will they believe that the wait times, which are unprecedented in Manitoba and getting worse, are a sign of improvement.
So what does this mean for the future? I’m neither a forecaster or a gambler. But I do like to look at leading indicators and what they might signal. And for the NDP, the indicators clearly show an electorate that is expressing concern that what they are experiencing, isn’t matching what they are being told by their government.
