On Tuesday January 18th I spent the day in Fargo, North Dakota at the Red River Basin Commission annual meeting where flood forecasters from the U.S. Weather Service were giving their update on potential spring flooding in North Dakota. It was a sobering report.
They indicated that there is a high likelihood of a major flood for Fargo and a significant chance of a major one for Grand Forks. The main factors leading to this forecast are significant snow accumulation in the Dakotas and near complete saturation of the ground leading into the winter. The combination of saturated soil, already high river levels and significant snow amounts has put everyone on high alert south of the border for a potentially large spring flood.
The U.S. projections were used to help provide a flood outlook for Manitoba this past Monday. We are experiencing many of the same conditions (wet soil, high water levels and significant snow fall) as our neighbors to the south. As a result, our flood forecast was equally concerning. Adding to Manitoba’s challenge is the fact that not only is the Red River a potential flood concern but there is significant flood risk along the Assiniboine, Souris, Pembina, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan and Fisher rivers. In short, there is high flooding potential on many fronts.
After the U.S. forecasts were released I was asked by a local reporter whether there was a sense of panic among flood officials. The sense I got was not one of panic but one of preparation. While there are a number of factors pointing toward significant flooding there are also a number of factors that are unknown and that will determine how the spring flooding plays out.
How much more precipitation we get before and during the spring is critical. Residents remember how much of a role the 1997 spring snow storm played in what became The Flood of The Century. How fast the spring melt happens and when it happens also play a large role.
There are some things that are in our favour already. Much work happened after the 1997 flood to better protect municipal and private property. Private and municipal ring dikes were put in place in areas devastated more than a decade ago. The floodway has been expanded as well.
The key now is to ensure we are prepared. The potential for flooding at high levels is well known. There is nothing that can be done to control the weather that will come but there is plenty that the province can do to prepare itself by ensuring that plans and equipment are in place to respond quickly and in the right places. This week’s news shouldn’t provide reason for panic, but it does provide reason to prepare.
