Political pundits love to dissect the results of by-elections and speculate what they may mean for the next general election. Usually this results in too much weight being put on the results but nonetheless they do warrant examination because they do provide useful information.
One thing to note is that polls are becoming increasingly less reliable in predicting outcomes of elections in the absence of any other information. The day before the by-elections a poll was released that indicated that the federal Liberal Party had a 29% lead in the constituency of Brandon-Souris, one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.
Certainly there were signs that the Brandon-Souris race was very competitive and close this by-election but the Conservative candidate, Larry Maguire, managed to secure a narrow win. Hardly the “Liberal landslide” that the polling company had predicted just the day before.
It was also interesting to note how important direct voter contact truly is during a by-election. Because there is not a national campaign happening during a by-election it is difficult for voters to hear about party platforms and ideas. That made face to face voter contact all the more important as it was the most effective way to engage voters during the campaign. And that made door-to-door canvassing critical.
The final observation I took away from the by-elections in Manitoba was how poorly the NDP did. In fact the NDP received less than 10 % of the vote in both Manitoba by-elections, a significant reduction from how they have done previously. In fact in Brandon-Souris the NDP lost 70.6% of their vote from the 2011 federal election and in Provencher they lost 54.2% of their previous vote. That wasn’t the case in the Toronto or Quebec by-elections where the NDP were very competitive. It seems that the NDP vote in Manitoba disappeared and it’s hard not to wonder if that isn’t partially because of the track record of the provincial NDP.
Don’t forget, NDP federal leader Thomas Mulcair came to Manitoba and declared he wanted to run Canada the way Greg Selinger runs Manitoba. Apparently, the voters in Provencher and Brandon-Souris didn’t like the sounds of that and stayed away from voting NDP. And that isn’t just a rural phenomenon. In last year’s provincial by-election in the Winnipeg riding of Fort Whyte the NDP only got about 11% of the vote.
It leads to the question, where have all the New Democrat voters gone?
Overall, I want to commend each of the candidates who put their names on a ballot to run in the by-elections in Manitoba. Democracy was made stronger by your participation. I also want to congratulate Ted Falk and Larry Maguire as the two newest Members of Parliament for Manitoba and wish them well in their responsibilities.
