On October 19th there will be a referendum vote in Alberta that asks residents of that province a number of questions, the most prominent being whether they wish to begin a process of negotiating separation from Canada. While Canada has for many years heard the rumblings, sometimes louder sometimes softer, from Quebec about sovereignty, the Alberta vote is something different and seemingly motivated by different factors.
While polling would indicate that the Alberta separation question vote is likely to be defeated, the fact that it is being held signals both current and longer-term concerns. Unlike Quebec, whose past referendums largely focused on cultural and language issues, the Alberta vote has its roots in economic factors. The long-standing concern that the federal government has been at best unhelpful and at worst obstructionist in helping Alberta get natural resources like oil to market through the construction of pipelines is at the heart of the referendum. And while the current Liberal Prime Minister has made significant overtures, although not yet progress, when it comes to new pipelines, a portion of Alberta’s population has lost trust in our federal system of government.
And yet, like most Canadians, polling shows that most Albertans feel that Canada is better united and that there remains, despite challenges, a great deal of promise in our country. But as former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney points out, none of it matters if people don’t get out and vote in Alberta to keep the country united. But even if the expected vote to remain in Canada materializes, there is short and long-term economic pain caused by these votes. It not only causes uncertainty, but it raises the concern of future votes as it becomes a normalized political practice.
Such is the case in Quebec, where the talk of separation has been mostly on the backburner since the razor thin vote of 1995. That vote had measurable negative impact on the Quebec economy and undoubtedly resulted in some business investment chill given how close the country came to potentially separating. Now, a new PQ government has just been elected which ran on having another sovereignty referendum, albeit not until Donald Trump is no longer President.
But the mandate for a referendum is weak at best. The PQ won government but with only 28% of the popular vote, the lowest percentage by which a government has been achieved in Canadian history. The vast majority of Quebecers voted for parties that do not want to hold a sovereignty referendum. And yet, the prospect of such a vote eventually occurring remains real if not imminent. And at a time when there is already significant uncertainty in the Canadian economy because of the U.S. tariffs and the reduction on reliance of trade with the United States, questions of Canada sovereignty, whether immediate or not, do not add to business confidence.
Which leads to the difficult position that Prime Minster Mark Carney finds himself in, balancing both domestic and international challenges. Working to convince foreign investors that Canada is worth the investment while simultaneously working to convince parts of Canada that the country is worth keeping united. It is one of the most difficult times in our countries history to govern. But one that is critically important for all Canadians. My hope is that next week Albertans will express strong confidence in the future of a united Canada and that Quebec focuses on the cultural connections that unite us, regardless of who occupies the White House. The short and long term consequences of separation referendums are a price that is too high to continue to pay.
