Each election has its own dynamic, and it is unwise to try to draw out too many comparisons between different jurisdictions. And yet, every time voters exercise their democratic right anywhere in Canada it is still worth looking to see what lessons can be learned from the outcome.
The recent provincial election in British Columbia, in which the provincial Conservative Party defeated the incumbent NDP government, demonstrates both points well. The snap election call, only two years into the mandate of the NDP government, is interesting for political watchers on a number of levels.
First, the lesson. It was clear from the outset that the governing NDP was trying to capitalize on the turmoil (some may say chaos) that had consumed the right side of the political spectrum in B.C. for almost two years. While NDP Premier David Eby tried to convince British Columbians that the election was about protecting the province from Donald Trump, voters very quickly concluded that it was about nothing more than political opportunism. And they were not happy about an election called two years before it was required.
While federal and provincial governments have not always been punished at the polls for calling an early election, there are more than a few examples in Canadian history where the public decides to punish political parties that ask them to vote early. The British Columbia example will certainly be one that political observers use in the future when pointing out the danger of putting political opportunism so clearly on display in front of the electorate.
But while the early vote is the reason the NDP are out of government in British Columbia earlier than was expected, it is not the only reason they were defeated. The NDP had been in a sustained level of unpopularity in B.C. for some time with Premier Eby polling poorly as well. Former NDP Premier John Horgan who stepped away from the job in 2022 and passed away in 2024 was a popular political figure and someone I got to know as a pragmatic and thoughtful person during our interactions. Between Mr. Horgan and Mr. Eby the NDP had been in power for nearly a decade, and, like all governments, it becomes more difficult to sustain support as time goes along.
While comparisons will naturally be drawn between Mr. Eby’s decision to call a snap election and the early call of former Ontario Premier David Peterson who also lost his re-election bid in 1990, Mr. Peterson was popular when he decided to call an early campaign. The same could not be said of Mr. Eby.
So, it is too simple to say that the B.C. win and the NDP loss signals something fundamentally changing in Canada as it is not unusual for long term governments to be defeated. Especially those that have been low in the polls for some time. But it is a very important reminder for all of those who hold elected office or who will seek it in the future, that the usual political games that occur in every government can be dangerous when they start to ensnarl the electorate. It isn’t hard for most voters to determine what passes the smell test when it comes to political decision making. Calling an election two years before it was required, when your opponents seem to be in disarray, clearly smelled of political opportunism of the highest order. And that will be the enduring lesson that voters on Canada’s west coast have reminded all of us about.
