Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released the 2025 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, which provides an assessment of hydrologic conditions at the time of freeze-up for forecasting spring run-off. The report summarizes soil moisture conditions, river flows and lake level conditions, as well as an overview of long-range weather predictions heading into winter and spring.

Most Manitoba basins received below to well-below normal precipitation from May to October, while parts of southern Manitoba and the U.S. portions of the Red River basin and Souris River basin received normal to above-normal amounts. Soil moisture at freeze-up was near normal to above normal for parts of southern Manitoba and the U.S. portions of the Red River and Souris River basins. Record-low spring and summer precipitation in parts of the Interlake region, eastern Manitoba and northern Manitoba has contributed to drought-like conditions in these areas.

The report also includes a long-term precipitation outlook and projected river flows and lake levels across Manitoba basins:

  • Global weather prediction centres indicate a weak La Niña climate conditions are expected to continue to early winter, with a transition toward neutral conditions from January to March.
  • For Manitoba, La Niña weather patterns typically result in below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation from December through March.
  • Most southern Manitoba rivers are near normal for this time of year, while most northern rivers remain below normal.
  • Flows on the Red River and Assiniboine River are near normal for this time of year. Flows are below normal on the Saskatchewan River, and well-below normal on the Winnipeg and Churchill rivers.
  • Most Manitoba lakes are at normal to below-normal levels and remain within their respective operating ranges.
  • Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba are well-below normal and Lake Winnipegosis is below normal for this time of year.

The near-normal to below-normal soil moisture conditions and near-normal to below-normal river levels indicate a potential for near-normal to below-normal spring run-off in most Manitoba basins. However, the extent of spring run-off is largely dependent on precipitation throughout the winter and spring and snowmelt conditions. A more detailed spring flood outlook is planned to be released later in February 2026.

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre works collaboratively with Environment and Climate Change Canada, the National Weather Service and flood forecasters in neighbouring jurisdictions to monitor watershed conditions and winter precipitation patterns. The Manitoba Emergency Management Organization continues proactive preparations for emergency response efforts in advance of spring run-off.

To read the 2025 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, visit gov.mb.ca.