The Research Lead with Agri-Food Economic Systems says, despite the imminent escalation of Canada-United States Trade tensions there is still room for a measure of optimism.
On Tuesday Canadian retaliatory counter-tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on a range of American imports in response to the U.S. imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Canadian products following the collapse of trade talks.
Dr. Al Mussell, the research lead with Agri-Food Economic Systems and a Fellow in Residence of the C.D. Howe Institute says it would be naive to not expect an escalation of the dispute but there is still room for a measure of optimism.
We have a decades-long relationship in Canada and in Canadian agri-food with some great friends and businesses in the United States that we’ve had remarkable trading arrangements with. On that basis, one would hope, surely, we can see our way to some sort of a resolution of this. The dilemma is that this has gotten heavily politicized and it’s politically driven from the U.S. side, that’s for sure. The fact that we have that depth of relationships gives me some optimism.
Many people probably find themselves blindsided by this, concerned about our vulnerabilities on a whole range of things, whether it’s farm inputs, whether it’s things that we need to sell and export. We need to be very concerned about that and we need to work together on it. It’s a period we’ve never seen before, not in my generation, nor in the generation ahead of me, really.
So, some optimism from the relationships that we’ve had, but what timing? I don’t know. There’s an old adage among economists that you can forecast an outcome, or you can forecast a timing but you never do both because you’re bound to be wrong. So, maybe I’ll stick with that.
~ Dr. Al Mussell, Agri-Food Economic Systems
Dr. Mussell says, whether we’re talking about outputs on the farm side or farm inputs this is a serious matter for Canadian agriculture and we’ll know more shortly.
