CUSMA renegotiation expected to result in tariffs on Canadian pork

A Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services warns the upcoming renegotiation of the Canada U.S. Mexico free trade agreement is likely to result in new tariffs on Canadian pork.

Profit margins for pork producers have been exceptionally high recently and are expected to continue at that level for at least the first quarter of 2026, but the upcoming renegotiation of the North American trade agreement remains a wild card.

Paul Marchand, a Senior Risk Management Analyst with HAMS Marketing Services, says, despite a range of tariff threats made by the United States against Canada and Mexico, the trade agreement whether you refer to it as NAFTA 2.0, USMCA or CUSMA has remained in play.

That agreement has shielded the North American pork trade more or less and that remains very much in play. The biggest issue that we’re looking at now is that agreement is going to be renegotiated in 2026 and I have a hard time believing anecdotally that the present administration in the United States is going to be OK with a zero percent tariff on Canadian pork which is currently what that level is so we would expect to see a levy or a tariff attached to pork after the renegotiation.

I think most favored nation is around 12 and a half percent, so between 10 and 15 would be expected. But what’s most important is not what the level is not necessarily what the level is although any level in my opinion is too high, but we would want to see some stability.

So, what is the new level if there is going to be one, and when it is put in place, how stable is it and does it stay in place? We have seen the benefit of the impact or the function that CUSMA has had for the North American pork trade. Because it has been in place and respected and in force, it has provided a shield against some of these tariff threats that have been lobbied about but we’ll have to see what happens in 2026.

~ Paul Marchand, HAMS Marketing Services

Marchand says the market has been steady, fueled by strong demand, and he expects that to continue through the first quarter of the new year.